a more rational look at the recently deceased cubs

now that it's day two in the post-cubs part of the MLB season, i've had one day to let out my irrational cranktankerous dusty baker hate vibes. now that i've had a chance to sit back and reflect on the temporarily sad state of cub affairs.

today the cubs added in mathematical elimination to their brewing stew of various forms of veritable elimination, and the public can finally stop holding back all of their negative thoughts about the cubs. whenever a team with expectations fails to reach the postseason, and not just in a manner where they were dead in the water months back, but where they absolutely collapse and kick up a rather large dust cloud of crap that causes you to gag for anything even remotely resembling fresh air.

realistically, you saw the writing on the wall months ago... you know, back when the cubs and cardinals locked horns, only to leave the cubs sufficiently thumped.

the cardinals got out to an early lead in the NL central, well relatively early, preobably by the end of may or sometiime in june, and they led the cubs by anywhere from one to 6 or 7 games... it hink i twas around 4 or 5 when they entered the first of something like 6 cardinals games in a 10 day timeframe.

the general mentality around chicago was that the cubs would beat the cardinals up, overtake them, and then cruise on to the division title. there was just one problem with that situation: the cardinals didn't exactly follow the plan. they administered their usual cubs beatdown and ended a series up by 7 games. cubs fans were a teensy bit concerned, but seven games isn't anything to worry about down the stretch. i mean, mark prior is back, wood will be back soon, zambrano is great, right? well the cardinals proceeded to kick the shit out of mark prior in a start against him, capping him off with an edgar renteria grand slam. once the cardinals swept the cubs (or at least took 2 out of 3 i nthe final series) the cubs found themselves around 9-10 games back and then the public said "ok we'll probably get close to the division at worst, but then there's always the wind card"

by 10 or 11 games up, the wild card subtly became the main focus for cubs fans' expectations.

by 13 the cardinals, when they were rarely mentioned, were an unattainable goal as all focus shifted to the wild card, cue the obligatory fluff piece on how wild card winners have won the last two world series.

interruption: the cubs flagship radio station announcer, jim memelo, said "i bet that most of you out there don't even care about the baseball scoreboard anymore. the cubs are out of it, it's over, so who cares about what houston, san fran, or other people are doing right about now?" this is more proof that the baseball fan is truly a minority amongst the masses of fans of any trendy bandwagoning metropolis baseball team. cue more bemoaning of the facts, 4 out of 5 callers calling for dusty's head, that other one of five calling up and saying that we should thank our heavens that dusty baker was around to lead us to back to back winning percentage seasons since the early 70s.

i'm going to let you in on a little secret: a trained dog in a cubs team logo cape could probably manage this team to a .500 record. the cubs didn't make it to 88 wins last year because the great dusty baker showed up and willed them to be winners. they won because they had some damn good ballplayers who helped the team collectively overcome a lack of fundamental greatness, and a lack of subtle attributes of a baseball psyche that breed winning baseball. on paper you have this team full of hitters who can do, baseline standard here, .280/30+/100+. namely, sammy sosa, moises alou, aramis ramirez, and derrek lee. you look at that group and you see four potentially star bats. but when you get down to it, with the exception of ramirez, who is blossoming into a slightly pujolsesque stud complete-hitter infielder, the other three guys are feast or famine type characters . derrek lee looks like he has the most potential out of the lot of three, as he's pretty young (29), has managed to top 30 home runs 100 rbi, but can't get a clutch hit for the cubs to save his life. it's no wonder a guy who was .270/30/90/20 with so many potential tools to polish languished at 6th in the mighty thumpin marlins batting order, and not atop given a chance to be the primary person who drives i ntheir two leadoff hitters, juan pierre and luis castillo.

sosa is clearly off of steroids, and has been somewhat creaky whether not age or steroids-degenerated-damage cause this problem. his arms are almost laughably smaller than a couple of years ago. not only that, but he clearly has shown time and time again that he is more self-centered than team oriented. when the cubs were going well and sammy wasn't, he was pissy-looking, aloof, and pouting/grumpy/adjectives. when sammy made big plays whether or not hte cubs were winning at the time, he was barking at the media and justifying his style. sammy has been hitting the ball well lately, in this stretch where the cubs are languishing and absolutely burying themselves for the rest of the season. and you know what? i bet if he finishes up with another 2-4 type game even without a HR, maybe a solid defensive game, sammy will talk to the media t length and talk about how he had a hard year with injuries, but at the end he managed to get it together, but it wasnt enough to save the team, which is, OF COURSE, the top priority. he says that he'll be back strong next year and not comment about potential trades to the mets and/or washington expos. say that they make the park a little bandbox where a right handed batter can tee off like coors, minute maid, the GABP in cincy, or even comiskey park these days... and they talk to sammy about how since they're not an expansion franchise that they're not rebuilding, they're retooling, etc. and you'll be THE MAN here, sammy and they can milk his chase of 600, 660, 700 HRs, try to get him to retire in a washington expos cap, etc
MLB still markets sammy like a superstar, however, i think his act has wore thin in chicago. the thinking is that if he goes to another team, especially one without a definite identity at its re-inception, he can come in like king sammy, as MLB still probably considers him one of their top 5 or top 10 superstars (and of course, sammy thinks he's #2 or #3 behind barry bonds these days)

more wishful thinking.

i would like the cubs to pursue troy percival this offseason. while troy is getting old (approaching 35), he is a seasoned veteran... a closer who's been out there closing games since 1996. troy percival closed 27 games in 1997, which was the lowest single season total of saves he'd had since he became a fulltime closer in 1996. he's had 30 saves per season for the last eight seasons. with age, his K rate is indeed going down, however while giving up more hits and striking out less batters this season compared to last, he managed to slighly lower his ERA in roughly the same number of innings pitched. latroy hawkins ended up being 2/10 in one run save opportunities this season. in total, troy has blown 13 over the last three seasons, while saving 103 games in that span. (i think latroy has saved about 25 games in that span)

more later