completely useless by september: only two weeks left

initially, i did make good on my promise to give you a hearty helping of statistical analysis on the cubs, however, a freak mozilla error eradicated my post from the realm of existence. that said, i'll try a condensed version for your reading disdain:

the cubs, obviously, made a big statement when they went out and acquired nomar garciaparra from the venerable boston red sox. even moreso than his ~.320+ish average since joining the cubs, he has made a bigger impact on the psyche of the team. jim hendry, layman's term for "baseball mastermind", went out and told his ballclub that he believes in their world series chances by giving up a potentially solid end-of-the-game bullpen guy in francis beltran.

all in all, the trade was a steal for the cubs, even though i wouldn't be surprised to see that justin jones prospect flourish in a twins uniform within 2-3 years. even if nomar is a rent-a-player, the message has been steadfastly delivered to the team: the tribune co believes in them.

since that fateful trade, the cubs have managed to fight for the lead in the wild card race. they have to be the most favoured team in that race, as the giants and padres both are quality .500+ teams, however, neither of them have the depth to supplant their majorly-talented stars (barry bonds, jason schmidt, phil nevin, brian giles, jake peavy) and thanks to having the end of the rotation feature 300 game winner greg maddux, especially in the realm of pitching, you'd think that the cubs have a clear advantage.

problem is, the cubs have had bullpen woes this season. farnsworth looks to be drinking again as his inconsistency has actually became consistency, however in terms of the downside. he's been shelled in his last 7 outings (~7IP, 10 ER, 0-something). for a guy who has all of the physical tools to not only be a quality reliever, moreover a dominant closer, he certainly doesn't have it all together in his head: where stoicism is needed most.

up until friday, when the cubs bullpen singlehandedly (or well, three-handedly) managed to blow two out of three games against the NL-West leading dodgers, i was sold on the cubs top concern being the status of mark prior. yes, i wholly admit that such a statement sounds preposturous on the surface, but up until a start last week in Colorado, prior had managed to run his era upwards to something like 5.05, with high walk totals complementing a lack of Ks that would have kept pace with last season, or even 2002 where he averaged something like 12.7 K/9IP.

also, this season, opposing teams seem to have figured out a good strategy to potentially beat the cubs' mighty starting staff: take pitches. rather than swinging at pitches 1-3, if you can force the cubs pitchers to have 7-10 pitch at-bats, knowing that they're still on a somewhat short leash due to earlier injury problems, you can garner a walk, cheap base hit, or ultimately knock the starters out of the game from, say, the 5th-7th innings. this tactic doesn't apply to greg maddux, who has emerged to be one of the cubs most consistent pitchers during the month and a half since last we spoke. still, that said, i wouldn't necessarily count on maddux in, say, a one game wild card playoff up against jason schmidt... but for a fifth starter, i dont think that you can do much better than good ol mad-dog.

so that said, the cubs' bullpen is the key concern. as the cubs progress down the stretch, despite injuries to wood and prior giving them "breaks" during the season, you have to wonder if they will run out of gas in october once again, akin to last season. if the cubs' bullpen is indeed shaky and indeed not something that dusty baker can turn to without causing some fear, then the starters will invariably watch their pitch counts rise, which as we discussed before, is a quality tactic to beat the cubs' 4 "power" starters.

nevertheless, i will focus on yesterday's games in a new post, which you probably have read before this one. take care.